Recently, Scott Mendelson at Puck reported on the upcoming Project Hail Mary that included two different budget figures: a gross budget of $248m (which includes all money spent on the movie), and a net budget of $200m (which subtracts tax incentives Amazon/MGM earns from shooting in the UK.)
At Fantasy Box Office, we had to decide: which number should we use?
Initially, we went with the $248m gross budget, because we believed that was more consistent with other movies’ reported budgets. However, after talking with players, we decided that was the wrong decision, and we’re changing it to $200m.
Why use the net budget? For one, more movies than we realized have a reported net budget, like this year’s GOAT.
Furthermore, a net budget is a more accurate representation of the money that your fictional studio spent to make the movie. Your fictional studio gets those fictional tax breaks, after all!
Perhaps most importantly, Fantasy Box Office is most fun when movies do well. Using the $200m net budget gives Project Hail Mary a more realistic path to success. How often do we get a big-screen theatrical swing like this that isn’t a sequel or a remake? As far as we’re concerned, if Project Hail Mary does well, everybody wins.
The Bigger Picture
This situation highlights a broader issue we’ve wanted to fix for a while.
Movie finances aren’t always clear-cut. Sometimes there are multiple reported figures. Sometimes there’s no clear number at all. And sometimes, the “real” number comes out months later.
Take Best Picture winner One Battle After Another. It had multiple budgets reported ranging from $130m to $170m. We landed on $140m because it was the most commonly cited in early reporting, but reasonable people could disagree.
Or consider post-release reporting. Publications like Deadline often release year-end financial breakdowns of certain movies with more specific finances than what is available at release. But we’ve avoided using those numbers, because they can retroactively change league standings long after a movie has come out. Most players aren’t tracking that stuff themselves, and it doesn’t feel great to have your score shift months later for reasons you don’t understand.
In short: we shouldn't be the judge, jury, and executioner of these budget decisions. In many cases, there’s no one-size-fits-all answer, and what feels “right” for a movie can vary from league to league.
So instead of trying to solve this perfectly for everyone, we’re giving you the tools to decide for yourselves.
Introducing Custom Budgets
Starting today, League Commissioners can set their own budgets for any movie, including Project Hail Mary.
If your league prefers larger budgets in certain situations, go for it. Want to do your own research and dig through foreign tax documents? Now you can. If you work for the movie studio and know the actual budget, go ahead and use it… we won’t tell.
If you’re a League Commissioner, you’ll now see a pencil icon next to movie budgets on each movie card. From there, you can edit the budget or adjust the breakeven multiplier for individual movies. You can edit this anytime - before or after the movie is released!
(By default, leagues use a 2.5x breakeven multiplier on every movie. You can already change that for your entire league in League Settings, and now you can fine-tune it on a per-movie basis.)
And importantly: you don’t have to use this feature. If you prefer the standard experience, nothing changes. We’ll continue adding budgets and updating scores the same way we always have.
House Rules
We’re especially excited about what this unlocks for leagues that want to experiment.
Fantasy Box Office has been around for a few years now, and some leagues may want to introduce more varied or dynamic gameplay.
Custom budgets open the door to all kinds of “house rules.” For example, you could decide as a league that all your Hit Picks get a lower budget multiplier than normal movies. Or, you could institute a rule where you can watch your studios’ movies to earn budget discounts.
Giving commissioners more control over league rules is a major priority for us moving forward. If you have any ideas for new rules or features, we’d love to hear them! Shoot us an email with your thoughts.
What Happens Now?
We officially updated the Project Hail Mary budget to $200m. If you agree with that decision, no action is required.
If your league prefers to play with the larger $248m budget, your League Commissioner needs to click on the movie and edit the budget to $248m.
For any other questions, contact us or go to our FAQ.